Hitting an air pocket

The Indian Air Force must wait for about a decade before it's ready to place orders. By then, the fifth generation fighters would be entering the air forces of the world

Mohan Guruswamy Delhi

As the world commemorates the 70th anniversary of the outbreak of World War II, it's probably an apt time to ponder over the nature of future war and its impact on India.

High cost
By its very nature, modern limited war will be airpower intensive. Airpower is the most capital intensive means of war. A modern fighter jet now could cost several hundred crores of rupees and the prices seem to be rising exponentially. A budget of Rs 42,000 crore has been provisioned for 126 Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) proposed to be acquired. This suggests a price of about Rs 330 crore each. Given an operational life of about 40-50 years these would easily require at least a three-fold expenditure, for periodic maintenance and modernisation. The first lot of MIG-21s cost us less than Rs 20 lakh each. A brand new and latest MIG-21 variant will cost at least one hundred times that.

Aircraft delivered ordnance also is very expensive. A run of the mill radar-guided cum heat-seeking missile today can cost upto Rs 50 lakh each while an advanced long range air-to-air missile could cost five times that. Then we have a wide array of laser-guided, and TV-guided precision munitions that can be just as expensive. For instance, the prices of runway-busting Durandal bombs start at about Rs 15 lakh a piece. The accuracy of these weapons makes them devastating, but nevertheless airpower alone does not win wars.

If it were so, the USA would have won in Vietnam or even be winning in Afghanistan. The Israeli war in Lebanon in 2006, which mostly relied on its vastly superior airpower, did not give it the results it expected. The Hezbollah was seen a victor for showing itself willing to stand up to the Israeli onslaught, which in just a few days killed 1,200 fighters and civilians for just a handful of Israeli casualties. But even this war cost Israel $4 billion and shaved off a little over one per cent from its annual economic growth. Meanwhile, the Hezbollah and Hamas continue to flourish and are now even bigger players in the politics of the region. So who won?